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Just thinking out loud!!

I'm sure most can recall how prices on firearms and ammo shoot through the roof when the new adminsitration took office in DC. Since this time gun and ammo sales have continued to rise though at a slower pace, but still a steady increase.
Now given the data of firearm sales over Black Friday alone, is it time to stock up on ammo before some calibers become in shorter supply and price across the board rise?
Gotta look at it from the point of view that if these new guns were purchased for Christmas presents, come the day after Christmas there will be a number of new owners out looking to buy ammo. And ammo is somewhat like gas, if there is a perceived shortage the prices rise and seen to stay the that higher price.
Another thing I have noticed within the last week was the higher prices of firearms on websites and on line auctions. Is this a matter of real Supply and Demand or a manipulated Supply and Demand coming our way?
 

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Between the 'Supply & Demand' theory and the constant devaluing of the US dollar, I would have to say yes. We're all seeing the increases at the pump and checkout lines for food already, ammo and guns will definitely take another bump on the final end.
 
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Just the fact that Bernake decided to crank up our printing presses to warp 5 speed to bailout Europe.....the commodities that go into ammo will have a lot of inflation.

All of the target ammo I bought about 5 years ago has doubled in value or price. The personal protection ammo has not gone up near the same percentage.

The big question is at what point do folks become more discretionary in how much ammo they shoot at the range....just like their discretionary spending on gas and how much they drive.

Four years ago, when I was still buying Blazer Brass .45 acp at Walmart for $9.47 a box, I shot a couple of boxes each range trip.
Even though I stockpiled a lot of that .45 acp back then....I still look at replacement cost anytime I'm at the range.

Now I shoot 25 rounds of .45 acp, 50 rounds of .38 special and 100-200 rounds of .22 long rifle at the range and my trigger finger is fairly satisfied.

New shooters will typically shoot a lot more ammo and waste a lot more ammo than seasoned shooters.

Reloaders are a different breed, but rarely waste ammo.

Manufactures have ramped up production facilities in the past couple of years....particularly regarding .380 ammo....and more small manufactures have come on line. Baring anti ammo regulations, I don't expect ammo demand to exceed supply for the foreseeable future unless we get involved in another foreign conflict. I see the feds printing presses as the main driving factor as the reason for increases in ammo cost.
 

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Right before the big dump of 2007-2008 I cashed out my retirement fund and re-invested in commodities....brass, lead, nitrocellulose.......well, you get the idea. I determined at what level of investments I was comfortable, and I have never let my commodities drop below that level. Even after taking the double hits of early withdrawal :)o I hate it when that happens) and having to pay taxes I am still ahead financially, and I don't have to worry about the supply and demand of ammunition, seeings how I role my own.....

Mike
 

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In this Political climate I can see the Gov't putting a Special Tax on ammo to try to price us outta the market.
 
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In this Political climate I can see the Gov't putting a Special Tax on ammo to try to price us outta the market.

That idea was brought up some time back & failed. Wouldn't surprise me if it came up again in the present
climate you stated.
Somebody has to pay for all the money loaning with money we don't have. Brilliant!!
 

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I was going to post a new thread on ammo prices but I suppose this will suffice. I just came from my local walmart where I purchased Federal 9's for $19.97/100 value pack. With Ohio tax that worked out to $21.27 or $10.64/50. A box of 50 now sells for $10.97 plus tax, down 1 dollar from last week. The clerk said it was due to brass prices being down. Anybody else notice this going on? Hopefully it stays this way.
 

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If the annointed one should get re-elected... there will be the biggest rush on guns ammos and accessories in the history of the US... if not... no biggie.... stock up on reloading supplies if you reload, ammo if you don't... buy any gun you want now.... before it's too late... not trying to start a panic.. but hey... most of us, me included never thought he had a chance of winning in the first place. Shows you just how stupid the US has become.
 

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If Obama wins in November, you bet. If September rolls around and Obama has what looks like an insurmountable lead, I think the run is on, and for good reason. Ammo, guns, everything.

If Obama wins, he's going after our guns. I'm absolutely convinced of that.
 

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I hate the fact that ammo is up in price compared to what it was before Obama got elected. The rise of prices is not Obama's fault though, it's yours.
 

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Every thing goes up to line the pockets of those in charge-
 
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If one is fairly comfortable with their gun collection and/or straped for cash, I stronly suggest spending what little discresionary cash available on stock piling ammo.

2012 is only a few weeks away, and I foresee another run on the most popular calibers.
 

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My advice: If you can, try to do at least one private deal with no paper trail - that way you'll have at least one gun the feds don't know about.
Yeah, I know NICS is supposed to keep records only for 48 hours - but your dealer has the federal forms you've signed and it won't take a lot of time for the jackboots to confiscate them if it ever comes to that.
 

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Prices may be up but product remains available.
I remember when my local store was sold out of 9mm minutes after hitting the shelf!!!!!
 

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Not to just throw fuel on a fire, but...

In the last Baltimore mayoral election, a Dem candidate announced in his platform, a $1/round tax all on ammo sold within the city limits. Fortunately he didn't get past the primary, but the idea is certainly 'on their radar'.

It's never too soon to stock up!! Remember what the Boy Scouts say... :D
 

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If the annointed one should get re-elected... there will be the biggest rush on guns ammos and accessories in the history of the US... if not... no biggie.... stock up on reloading supplies if you reload, ammo if you don't... buy any gun you want now.... before it's too late... not trying to start a panic.. but hey... most of us, me included never thought he had a chance of winning in the first place. Shows you just how stupid the US has become.
Wasn't that what everybody said last election? And there was a big rush, but as far as I can see nothing ever came out of it except a temporary jump in prices. I think Fast and Furious will do more harm to gun rights than Obama, and will probably occur no matter who's in office.
 

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My advice: If you can, try to do at least one private deal with no paper trail - that way you'll have at least one gun the feds don't know about.
Yeah, I know NICS is supposed to keep records only for 48 hours - but your dealer has the federal forms you've signed and it won't take a lot of time for the jackboots to confiscate them if it ever comes to that.
Ive thought about this topic, and the way I see it the 4473's are not as useful as you would think to the Washington KGB for tracking down individual arms.

Even a small FFL is going to have multiple purchase documents going back 20 years on various firearms. The documents don't say whether the guns were traded or not, they simply state that John Doe bought a handgun or rifle on date X. Its good for tracking down the history of one person, but not so good at determining the whereabouts of a particular firearm.

For that, the Jackboots will use much more modern tools such as the following:

National Training Center:The ATF Firearms Tracing System (FTS) within the National Tracing Center (NTC) contains firearm tracing information from all traces performed since 1989. In 2003, over 460,000 Multiple Firearm Sales reports (ATF F 3310.4 - a registration record with specific firearms and owner name and address) had been entered into the system, and was increasing by about 140,000 per year. Further, all guns "suspected" as being used for criminal purposes, as well over 1.2 million (in 2002) detail results from all traces (which includes Names and Addresses of all known sellers and purchasers) had been entered. The system includes data manually collected from Out-of-Business records and entered into the tracing system by ATF personnel. ATF reports over 400 million firearms transaction records in the Firearms Tracing System - far more than the total number of firearms in the United States.
The basis for ATF to trace a firearm is make, model and serial number. Serial numbers on guns are not sacrosanct. Recording of serial numbers by ATF, police or dealers is subject to human error, as it is easy to misread a serial (for example: confusing the number 0 with the letter O, 2 with Z, or 5 with S), omit a digit or two, or transpose a couple of numbers.[SUP][2][/SUP] These and similar errors when entering a serial into the tracing system result in false traces. Certain categories of firearms simply cannot be traced because of multiple duplicate serial numbers, which will result in multiple false traces. Criminals can easily add a number or letter to a serial on a gun, or completely replace it with a false number. According to the ATF National Tracing Center data, an invalid serial number was the most common reason for unsuccessful traces from Mexico, but it's not clear from the report how a serial number can be "invalid".[SUP][3][/SUP]

Once a gun is traced, even falsely or in error, and no matter how innocent the buyer, the first (and any known subsequent) owner's personal data is permanently retained in the ATF trace file and sent to any law enforcement agency asking for the trace. It is documented that to attempt to accomplish a trace, Law Enforcement will frequently enter partial serial numbers to attempt a match, which results in additional false traces.


This is how guns end up in the registration system:

1. Multiple Sale Reports. Over 460,000 (2003) Multiple Sales reports (ATF F 3310.4 - a registration record with specific firearms and owner name and address - increasing by about 140,000 per year). Reported as 4.2 million records in 2010.[SUP][4][/SUP] 2. Suspect Guns. All guns "suspected" of being used for criminal purposes but not recovered by law enforcement. This database includes (ATF's own examples), individuals purchasing large quantities of firearms (including collectors of older firearms rarely used in crime), and dealers with "improper" record keeping. May include guns “observed” by law enforcement in an estate, or at a gun show, or elsewhere. Reported as 34,807 in 2010. [SUP][5][/SUP] 3. Traced Guns. Over 1.2 million (2002) detail results from all traces. ATF reported 343,746 guns were traced in 2009, and a total of 4 million traces since inception.[SUP][6][/SUP] This is a registration record which includes Names and Addresses of the first seller and purchaser, and possibly subsequent purchasers. 4. Out of Business Records. Data is manually collected from paper Out-of-Business records (or input from computer records) and entered into the trace system by ATF. These are registration records which include name and address, make, model, serial and caliber of the firearm(s), as well as data from the 4473 form - in digital or image format. In March, 2010, ATF reported receiving several hundred million records since 1968. [SUP][7][/SUP] 5. Theft Guns. Firearms reported as stolen to ATF. Contained 330,000 records in 2010.[SUP][8][/SUP] Contains only thefts from licensed dealers and interstate carriers (optional).[SUP][9][/SUP] Does not have an interface to the FBI's National Crime Information Center (NCIC) theft data base, where the majority of thefts are reported.

Data source here: National Tracing Center - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Bottom line, go ahead and buy that gun FTF in an alley somewhere.You'll still get a visit from the BATmen wanting to know about that Beretta you ppt'd. The Washington KGB has had decades to build a firearms database, and the FOPA notwithstanding the ATF has one now.
 

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You know, I've read about "They're comin for our [email protected]" threads and articles every single time a Democrat was elected.. Most recently when Obama was elected, I couldnt find a single box of 9mm or .45 for several months.. EVERYBODY was screaming and stockpiling, driving the prices up, buying everything they could find.. For what? What gun grab came out of it???? How many people got their doors kicked in and guns taken.. How many calibers were outlawed? All it did was become a self-fulfilling prophecy.. People freaked out, and bought everything they could find... which drove up prices and shorted supply.. which freaked people out into buying everything they could find... ad naseum! all it did was make the retailers more money in the end....

Now, I'm not saying its NOT going to happen.. I'm saying that maybe we should all take a step back and try to avoid the mob mentality that seems to pervade gun owners psyche..... And I would SERIOUSLY like to know where everyone is getting their super-secret info about the upcoming gun-grab in 2012.. I would definitely like to know if I am missing out on some information, because I want to hold on to my guns like everyone else.. so if you have sources of information, legitimate sources and not someones paranoid blog, I would appreciate links.. I am a member of the NRA, because I support their fight.. However, I do not subscribe to the cover to cover paranoia in every issue of their magazine..

That being said, I always have a stockpile of ammunition AND am building up several thousand rounds of reloading supplies, just because I like to be prepared... But this constant paranoia is doing two things to me.. Irritating me at peoples paranoia.. and making ME paranoid that I am missing something... :confused:
 

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You know, I've read about "They're comin for our [email protected]" threads and articles every single time a Democrat was elected.. Most recently when Obama was elected, I couldnt find a single box of 9mm or .45 for several months.. EVERYBODY was screaming and stockpiling, driving the prices up, buying everything they could find.. For what? What gun grab came out of it???? How many people got their doors kicked in and guns taken.. How many calibers were outlawed? All it did was become a self-fulfilling prophecy.. People freaked out, and bought everything they could find... which drove up prices and shorted supply.. which freaked people out into buying everything they could find... ad naseum! all it did was make the retailers more money in the end....

Now, I'm not saying its NOT going to happen.. I'm saying that maybe we should all take a step back and try to avoid the mob mentality that seems to pervade gun owners psyche..... And I would SERIOUSLY like to know where everyone is getting their super-secret info about the upcoming gun-grab in 2012.. I would definitely like to know if I am missing out on some information, because I want to hold on to my guns like everyone else.. so if you have sources of information, legitimate sources and not someones paranoid blog, I would appreciate links.. I am a member of the NRA, because I support their fight.. However, I do not subscribe to the cover to cover paranoia in every issue of their magazine..

That being said, I always have a stockpile of ammunition AND am building up several thousand rounds of reloading supplies, just because I like to be prepared... But this constant paranoia is doing two things to me.. Irritating me at peoples paranoia.. and making ME paranoid that I am missing something... :confused:
After reading your post and the post of othere, I had to go back and read my original post. The only mention that I had made as to politics in reference to any shortage and or rise in ammo prices was that it happened after the last election. This was purely used as a time reference not a political accusation.
My question was more directed at....with the record number of back ground checks ran on Black Friday and the growing number of first time gun buyers entering the market, may we well be looking at another supply shortage of ammunition in the coming months.

There could also be a flip side to this. How many new gun owners will find out that they don't care to shoot or have a gun around the house? How many new gun owners will come to the fact that it can be very expensive to go out and shoot and practice with their new firearm. Could we be looking at a flood of pre-owned firearms coming to the second hand market with in the next year?

As for causing any kind of paranoia, we don't need to do that here on the forum. The social media from your local news to any international finance channel, from the Discovery Channel to Judge Judy can create enough main stream paranoia to keep your mind running wild.....lol!!
 

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Calling folks paranoid for buying guns, stocking up on ammo is a voice by the uninformed (ignorant), who have forgot or never studied history of the 1994 Clinton sponsored law including bans on semi-auto rifles that folks erroneously called assault weapons and the ban on magazines with more than a 10 round capacity. That 10 year law was allowed to sunset and in the 7 years now that it has no longer been in effect.....there has not been carnage in American streets and the folks who legally own them have been very responsible with both the semi-autos and the high cap magazines.

So called paranoia also comes from the multitude of restrictive gun laws that are considered or offered for vote every year on local, state or federal levels. Most never make it out of committee to be put to a vote, but the fact that someone sponsors such a law is reason for concern.

Then lastly....what have repressive governments throughout history history done before enslaving their people or even exterminating many of them. How many times did that happen in the 20th century and how many millions of lives were forfeited because they had no way to defend themselves.

To refer to folks as being paranoid for owning guns and stockpiling ammo for fear of future laws that might be enacted, makes me think of folks who optimistically have their heads in the sand or up their rear end!

How quickly people forget even recent history. In the great scheme of things, the American Civil War is fairly recent, only about 7 generations in our rear view mirror. The Clinton Assault weapons ban only sunset 7 years ago and folks think it can't happen again?
Folks think we can never have another civil war? Folks trust our government with implicit faith? All who do, come to Lubbock and I'll sell you a lot of Beach front property really worth the money!
 
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