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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
There's been a lot of hand-waving and finger-pointing trying to name THE reason for the ammo shortage. I don't think there is a single reason, but rather the confluence of several factors that are fairly straightforward:


  1. The non-military branches of government making unprecedented purchases (not insignificant, but of more importance emotionally than economically)
  2. Various people in government exploiting recent tragedies to try to advance gun control measures makes shooters nervous leading to hoarding. (Indirectly significant)
  3. Profiteers exploiting the shortage by buying up ammo and selling at artificially elevated prices. (the key)

As much as I am suspicious of #1, the market can absorb that level of demand (2 billion rounds over 5 years) easily, no matter what the putative purposes of such ammo purchases may be, and we can discuss that at length elsewhere.

Although I despise as much as anyone else the gun control demagogues of #2, they are not themselves responsible for anything more than creating and fostering an emotional climate conducive to hoarding, creating a brief shortage.

Simple economics and a realistic view of human nature tells me that the profiteers of #3 are the ones who have the most obvious incentive to try to extend the shortage as long as possible. Sadly, I'll bet that many of the profiteers are people in the shooting community, and I'll bet a few will be among the "experts" and "spokesmen" for gun owners speaking in the media. It'll pay for them to try to stir up the emotions of shooters and continue to buy up ammo in the wholesale channel in order to keep retail prices high. The shortage is their gravy train, and they want it to last as long as possible.

This is a perfect storm of influences, but it can be quenched by invalidating the business model of the profiteers.

Bottom line: If I'm correct, then we, as a community, have the ability to end the shortage and normalize ammo prices. Here's how:


  • We just quit purchasing ammunition for, say, 2 months. Not a boycott, just a period of relaxation.
  • If we do that, I'll wager that the reduced demand coupled with the increased production by manufacturers will cause prices to begin to drop.
  • Once the price begins to drop, the profiteers will dump their hoards to cut their losses.
  • The wholesale channel fills back up and sanity returns to retail prices.


All we have to do is refuse to buy ammo for a couple of months. The manufacturers are running 24/7 churning out ammo, but the profiteers, not the government, are buying it up. If their market dries up, the prices will fall and things will get back to normal. There's no need for high prices to be the "new normal." We just need to be disciplined and sober-minded.

No one else can do this but us. We may not be responsible for the shortages and high prices, but we are sure as hell responsible to bring them back down. As Douglas Adams famously wrote, "Don't Panic!"

A final caveat - this is a post on an Internet forum, and there's always the chance that I could be a raving loony. However I ask you to read my words and ask yourself if this post sounds like the ravings of someone unhinged. Your call. If I'm incorrect in my assessment, then please be charitable enough to allow that I'm merely a well-intentioned but seriously mistaken fellow shooter.

Kind regards,
Coypu
 

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I don't disagree that if we shrank demand (put off buying) prices would come down. I don't have a problem with profiteers as you call them. They are just capitalists filling a need.

Its all about price elasticity. Once the price gets high enough people will start buying less. Or go to alternatives (reloading for example). I think your principle argument is pretty sound. The only objection I have is the negative portrayal of the resellers as profiteers. If I am misreading that let me know. Other than that I like what you said.
 

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The law of supply and demand will take care of the ammo problem. I believe a lot of people stocked up on ammo because of the ruckus over gun control - and I think a lot of those folks bought more than they're going to shoot for quite some time. As the market becomes saturated, sales will naturally fall off. Since it takes the wheels of production a while to react to market conditions, I'm guessing we'll end up with a glut of ammo in the not too distant future. We might even wind up with cheaper ammo than before this whole mess got started.

I was just in a gun store yesterday, and he had plenty of ammo. It was all way over priced, so I took a pass. I don't fault the guys at the gun store for trying to make a fast buck - they're just not going to get it from me. I didn't need it bad enough to pay their price, but if I had needed it... well, a man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.

I'm not going to try to punish any firearms or ammo suppliers for price gouging - it's just the way things work in the free enterprise system. When things cool down they're still going to be the folks we go to for firearms and supplies, and I want their businesses to remain healthy. It'll give me more choices later.
 

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I'm helping with the supply and demand. I saw this coming (as did a lot of us) and chose to increase my supply. Right now, my demand is about zero. I have a sufficient supply of ammo. I don't have enough - you can never have enough or too much unless you have to swim with it. I already see the prices coming down a little as the supply goes up a little.
 

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When the price gets jacked up to ten times normal retail, then that is evil.
They are not breaking the law. I can ask $1, 000, 000 a bullet if I choose. Am I evil? "Equal pricing" is an idea of the left progressives. Do not fall in that trap. It is simple. You do not buy and you move on.
 

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When the price gets jacked up to ten times normal retail, then that is evil.
I have to disagree 10x or 10,000x, there is nothing evil about capitalism.

High prices are just the markets way of showing scarcity of good that has a high demand. Its normal.
 

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When the price gets jacked up to ten times normal retail, then that is evil.
Sorry GWK, that's capitalism. It's only evil if you are forced to buy at those prices. As long as you have the freedom to tell the seller to shove his commodity, the prices will self-regulate based upon demand. It's when the government steps in and starts regulating things that capitalism is perceived as evil. But then, it's no longer capitalism. Case in point, obamacare.
 

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I would never pay those prices.
I have 100 rounds of .223 Rem.
Would you buy it if I charged $500?
 

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No I would not buy it. But you are not a monopoly either. Yes the prices suck. But this is supply and demand at its best. Equal pricing never works....just ask former Russia.
 

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I would never pay those prices.
I have 100 rounds of .223 Rem.
Would you buy it if I charged $500?

I think the point you are missing is nobody is forcing you to buy at those prices and nobody is forcing me to buy at your theoretical price either.

Lets say you bought the 100 rounds for $100 and wanted to resell them for the $500 you suggested. But I am only willing to buy at $75 dollars (the price others in the market are willing to pay) and nobody else will buy at the $500 price. Now you are stuck with a product that you can either use yourself or will have to offload cheaper than you bought it for. You could also store it and hope prices rebound a bit. They key point here is that you had the money, made an investment based on what you thought you could resell in the free market and guessed wrong. There is no harm here its just a risk of investing.
 

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Don't get me wrong I don't like the high prices either, I just don't see anything inherently evil with them.
 

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What I'm getting at is most people would not pay outrageous inflated prices for ammo, unless they are that "sucker is born every minute".
 

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There's been a lot of hand-waving and finger-pointing trying to name THE reason for the ammo shortage. I don't think there is a single reason, but rather the confluence of several factors that are fairly straightforward:


  1. The non-military branches of government making unprecedented purchases (not insignificant, but of more importance emotionally than economically)
  2. Various people in government exploiting recent tragedies to try to advance gun control measures makes shooters nervous leading to hoarding. (Indirectly significant)
  3. Profiteers exploiting the shortage by buying up ammo and selling at artificially elevated prices. (the key)

As much as I am suspicious of #1, the market can absorb that level of demand (2 billion rounds over 5 years) easily, no matter what the putative purposes of such ammo purchases may be, and we can discuss that at length elsewhere.

Although I despise as much as anyone else the gun control demagogues of #2, they are not themselves responsible for anything more than creating and fostering an emotional climate conducive to hoarding, creating a brief shortage.

Simple economics and a realistic view of human nature tells me that the profiteers of #3 are the ones who have the most obvious incentive to try to extend the shortage as long as possible. Sadly, I'll bet that many of the profiteers are people in the shooting community, and I'll bet a few will be among the "experts" and "spokesmen" for gun owners speaking in the media. It'll pay for them to try to stir up the emotions of shooters and continue to buy up ammo in the wholesale channel in order to keep retail prices high. The shortage is their gravy train, and they want it to last as long as possible.

This is a perfect storm of influences, but it can be quenched by invalidating the business model of the profiteers.

Bottom line: If I'm correct, then we, as a community, have the ability to end the shortage and normalize ammo prices. Here's how:


  • We just quit purchasing ammunition for, say, 2 months. Not a boycott, just a period of relaxation.
  • If we do that, I'll wager that the reduced demand coupled with the increased production by manufacturers will cause prices to begin to drop.
  • Once the price begins to drop, the profiteers will dump their hoards to cut their losses.
  • The wholesale channel fills back up and sanity returns to retail prices.


All we have to do is refuse to buy ammo for a couple of months. The manufacturers are running 24/7 churning out ammo, but the profiteers, not the government, are buying it up. If their market dries up, the prices will fall and things will get back to normal. There's no need for high prices to be the "new normal." We just need to be disciplined and sober-minded.

No one else can do this but us. We may not be responsible for the shortages and high prices, but we are sure as hell responsible to bring them back down. As Douglas Adams famously wrote, "Don't Panic!"

A final caveat - this is a post on an Internet forum, and there's always the chance that I could be a raving loony. However I ask you to read my words and ask yourself if this post sounds like the ravings of someone unhinged. Your call. If I'm incorrect in my assessment, then please be charitable enough to allow that I'm merely a well-intentioned but seriously mistaken fellow shooter.

Kind regards,
Coypu
I'll let you go first... You start. Let me know how it works for ya.
 

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What I'm getting at is most people would not pay outrageous inflated prices for ammo, unless they are that "sucker is born every minute".
I agree 110%

is it moraly wrong? Who judges morals?

did you know that a 32 oz soda has about .5 cents cost to it? But some pay up to $2 for one? And even more at a ball game and movie theater? Are they evil? No. You do not have to buy it. Capitalisim is what built America. It is, what all leftists are against. The lie of "fair" of the left is what pushes them forward. What I consider fair is not what a leftist considers fair.
 

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So has anyone actually done any research on the ammunition supply chain? It would be worth the time to go look and understand why this is happening and associate impacts from the public buying and DHS orders.

Plenty of websites out there that explain it.

Basically, it's a very very fragile supply chain. Think hard about what really goes into a bullet. It's not just led, copper, brass and gunpowder. Think about what makes up those components and where they come from.

Ok, I'll shut up now.... Maybe. ;)
 

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What I'm getting at is most people would not pay outrageous inflated prices for ammo, unless they are that "sucker is born every minute".
I agree that most won't but some will.

I would for example, let's say I take my daughter shooting next week.. I forget the bag with the .22 ammo in it... On the way I remember.. Now I have a choice. There is a local shop that I know will have it but it will cost me alot more than what I paid for mine or I could drive all home and get it. I buy it because its easier than going home and to me personally the convenience is worth it. Its the same principle that keeps convenience stores in business.
 
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