Taurus Firearm Forum banner

1 - 20 of 43 Posts

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
12,511 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Now take this with a grain of salt because it was reported by the NY Times and taken from a report at Columbia University. We don't have and never will have a way of proving it true or false so it's easy to just throw it out there. I don't know how they came up with these figures, but I can imagine it was through computer models which in my mind is very suspect.


"If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team."-New York Times May 20, 2020
 
  • Like
Reactions: WoodyUSSLUCE

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
19,631 Posts
Those numbers are bogus. There is absolutely no way you could get those projections with so little known at the beginning of this travesty. But we do have good numbers of those who have put off potentially lifesaving treatment due to the . . . well, travesty.

Hundreds of thousands put off getting their heart bypass procedures and other lifesaving measures. Because hospitals were supposedly going to get overloaded. Except that the hospitals never got overloaded; in fact, many hospital workers were furloughed because they couldn't fill all their beds.

I know of one case where a young adult came down with AML (Acute Myeloid Leukemia) which, for the record is very treatable with a 95% cure rate at 5 years. This person started not feeling well but did not go to the ER or doctor because of all the "stay away from hospitals and doctors offices" orders. The fear to go near medical facilities was heavily pushed by the media. Anyway, this particular young person missed the window to get managed in a proper fashion and died. Pretty much the first person to die from AML (never having been treated) in over 25 years.
 

·
Administrator
Joined
·
39,370 Posts
What we have here is known as, What If History. Mighta, coulda, woulda, but we'll never know. Would things have turned out different? Don't know. Might have. Then again, might have not.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,593 Posts
I wonder how many would have been saved if China would have been honest with the world when all this got started ? We will never know !
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,718 Posts
Pretty simple really.
This "research" will be used to vilify President Trump and paint his response to this crisis in a negative light.
Expect it and other "studies" like it to get HUGE airplay in the next few months as we get closer to the election.
GUARANTEED.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
800 Posts
BC605 hit the nail on the head! The New York Times is no friend of President Trump and will try to shed a negative light on him any time an opportunity presents itself. Leftist will never let a crisis go to waste as shameful as that is. You might also have noticed that recent polls show ol’ Joe would win the election if held today. Looking at the fine print, only 1300 people were asked. That’s too small a sample to mean anything but, the media is pushing it. Rest assured that the leftist will try to blame Trump for the virus and his “poor” reaction to it, high unemployment, and any decline in the economy. The Dems are desperate to oust Trump and nothing will be off the table to win the election.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
31,696 Posts
Any poll can be completely skewed by demographics of the zip codes of area to be polled. As a Realtor, I have tools to tell me the demographic of nearly anywhere!

Another thing, I believe polls are always skewed to the left, as I refuse to participate in any poll, no matter who the pollster is. Politically I am to the right of Attila the Hun. I have a feeling here are a lot of old farts like me who feel like it's nobodies business who I'm voting for, and I like pleasant surprises, like we had in 2016!
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
19,631 Posts
I'm like you. If I accidentally answer the phone (I almost always decline cell phone calls if I don't know the number or if it says "unknown" on caller ID) and they ask for me or the wife I tell them (whoever they ask for) isn't here and can I take a message. They usually say, well either if you will do. I then say I'm not me but the guy cleaning the carpets if they still want to talk I just hang up.

But, have any of you noticed a huge increase in unsolicited solicitation calls? Just the wife and I at home but we get upwards of 20 phone calls per day on our home phone and not a one of them is a personal call - ALL ARE UNINVITED SOLICITORS!! The whole country has been closed for 6-8 weeks and folks think they will get money for a phone call.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,164 Posts
If wishes were fishes, the world would be an ocean.
 

·
Moderator
Joined
·
21,935 Posts
Pretty simple really.
This "research" will be used to vilify President Trump and paint his response to this crisis in a negative light.
Expect it and other "studies" like it to get HUGE airplay in the next few months as we get closer to the election.
GUARANTEED.
Yep. And it won't change a single mind. But the MSM will try their crooked best.

I wonder how many would have been saved if China would have been honest with the world when all this got started ? We will never know !
Now THAT's the real question. I recently bought a couple of guitars, one of which I'm certain came from China - probably both. If I were buying today, there's no way I'd buy those. My efforts to avoid spending my money on anything of significance from China are about to get much, much more serious. I don't know if I can ever go to Harbor Freight again. Chairman Xi the coward has the blood of thousands on his hands.

The Wuhan virus may be what makes millions of people wake up to the dangers of socialism.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
29,717 Posts
If Chamberlain had not caved, would Hitler have been contained? If Apollo 11 had failed and all three astronauts were killed or had an Apollo 13 style accident would the Americans have continued to the moon, or would the Russians have been first?

Interesting questions to talk about over a drink and cigar but ultimately there are too many unknown variables. Its no different than the times 36,000 claim. We still don't know enough and we probably never will to support a claim like that.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,590 Posts
Now take this with a grain of salt because it was reported by the NY Times and taken from a report at Columbia University. We don't have and never will have a way of proving it true or false so it's easy to just throw it out there. I don't know how they came up with these figures, but I can imagine it was through computer models which in my mind is very suspect.


"If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team."-New York Times May 20, 2020
We have seen EVERY Model not only being wrong, but demonstrably wrong.
The methodology is so blatantly obvious if you read the story and ask "what is the agenda of the story?" If the agenda is not exclusively about the data and the modelling and how to improve it, it's a fluff piece for... pick a side.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,860 Posts
I think Texas Aviator had it about as right as right could ever get: " We still don't know enough and we probably never will ..."

Those who spout figures like that to support their narrative ( and more importantly, their EGO) are just publicity w****s ("wishes") looking for their fifteen minutes in the limelight or CNN, or the newspaper. Or something.

My guess is that an awful lot of American Voters, in November, will remember the guy who Made America Great Again (in their pocketbooks, especially) and will remember how good it was and wish to go right back there again, and as immediately as possible. And I'll bet tht that sentiment will become more and more publicly expressed the nearer we get to November.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,677 Posts
There is no such terminology in the history of pandemics referred to as "Social Distancing."

It is a made up term that has no basis in science.

Look back at any previous outbreak and you will not find the term nor the practice.

Also, wearing masks is a created response in regards to a virus.

While the virus has been real, the response has been very political and with goals that have nothing to do with dealing with a virus.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,593 Posts
Even if the Federal government had recommended a shut down a week or even two weeks earlier as suggested in the article, would the various governors and mayors (both republican and democrat) have followed it? Somehow I seriously doubt it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
22 Posts
Just a few comments. One is from the statistics philosophy and goes something like this " There are lies, then there are big lies, and then there are statistics. " Implication is if you have an agenda you can always make the numbers fit your agenda. The second comment is older but certainly applicable and goes like this : " Hind sight is always 20/20 " in this saying it is more about what knowledge exists at the time decisions are made regarding a subject. Actually the word "speculation" also plays a role in this case. Perhaps "secret" could also apply as China started getting information back in October of 2019 from what I have read. I won't bother much with "fake news" as that has begin to be more the normal than anything. So just remind yourself - don't believe everything you hear or read these days.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,515 Posts
While it is true there has been no model that has been perfect (an impossible feat considering, especially in this country where response changes from federal agency to federal agency, politician to politician, state to state, county to county, neighbor to neighbor), what actual real life has shown is that the faster you get your defenses and response protocols in place, the more lives are saved. That's some real basic math there when it comes to a virus this aggressive and easy to spread. So is it safe to say that thousands of lives would have been saved had we moved quicker and with a great deal more efficiency and common purpose? Absolutely. Anyone would be a fool to try and argue, best just to change the subject and move on if you don't like it. How many thousands? Well, for that there is no way to know, but considering we are just a handful shy of 100k deaths as of today, I would say the number would be considerable.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WoodyUSSLUCE
1 - 20 of 43 Posts
Top