Any investors in here?
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  1. #1
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    Any investors in here?

    I'm no Warren Buffett, but I do try to manage my own meager retirement fund. One thing I've never been interested in is the futures market, especially things like grain or cattle futures. However, if anyone here likes to live dangerously, I happened on a bit of information last week that might be of interest to you.

    A high school classmate who now lives in south/central South Dakota mentioned in passing that a lot of the farmers in her area had not even planted because of overly wet weather. Normally by this time of year, corn is well over 6' tall and tasseled out and soy beans are waste high. If they haven't planted, they stand very little chance of a crop this year.

    Soy Bean planting map: https://www.agriculture.com/crops/pr...nting-progress

    Corn planting map: https://www.agriculture.com/crops/pr...nting-progress

    On a different note: Right now, a lot of people are dancing in the streets because the Dow hit a record high last week. I keep telling people in the political forum I help moderate that a record high Dow doesn't mean anything. The day it hit that high, I lost $2,000 in the first 15 minutes of trading and it didn't come back. Conversely, between July 3 and July 9, it dropped 200 points and I made $6,000.

    I'm starting to try to figure out which funds I'm going to sell off in the next 6~9 months so I'm well clear of the markets before the election.
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    Michigan has been hit by massive flooding also, my dad said all the corn crops are rotating to Soybeans.

    They are not even 8" off the ground and the fields are half filled with water.

    We may be in for a rough year folks!

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    Dow goes up -> lots of profit taking -> prices drop. But I think your tips on commodities futures might be considered insider information so try to keep the chatter down. Or here... just whisper in my ear.
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    That's all public information so it should be priced in already. As far as selling out because you think the market is going to fall, why take the tax hit? Just hedge your equity exposure.
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    I'm doing nicely, the average across all my funds has been up 17.25%. I prefer mutual funds to spread out the risk and rewards.

    However, here is a tip to find the bubbles and get out. Any individual stock out pacing the inflation by 18% or more is possible bubble or the risk got very high.

    A good fund should double every 5 to 7 years. That's where I'm at with my moderate risk. I'm in decent funds that don't fall too badly and recover quickly. When the market is bad, I increase my investments in the good funds, when they recover, my rewards are even better.

    I've only had three bad years in the last 20, the rest were not far off from the 7% to 9% annual earnings. The things to invest in is what drives real wealth.

    1. Agriculture--everyone has to eat
    2. Natural resources--It takes materials to build or make
    3. Energy development--Do you really think the electrical companies and refineries lose money?
    4. Manufacturing of durable goods--some one needs a new car, stove, refrigerator, dozer, plane.
    5. Oil, gas, and Coal make up a separate category from natural resources. Anything that can be used to power and move the world is necessary for a functionally working economy.

    Because of what I look at, I beat my advisor on a regular basis. It's not by much, but a win is still a win, and adds up over 20 years. To a tune of $395,000 vs $524,000. I was picking on him last week.

    My backup plan if the economy collapses, lead and steel, even money will be worthless. This is where a 50 round box of .22 will be worth more than gold.

    Maloy

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    Thanks for the info and keep making that dough.

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    Quote Originally Posted by maloy View Post
    My backup plan if the economy collapses, lead and steel, even money will be worthless. This is where a 50 round box of .22 will be worth more than gold.
    ...make sure you get along with your neighbors. That will be make or break as much as anything.
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    I noticed the wet weather has caused some problems too, but it looks like local farmers found a way. In the local farmers market I have noticed that corn has made an appearance, but it is all off the mountain where the wet weather did not affect the fields so much. Down on the bottoms, there is corn in the fields about 6 foot high, still all dark green, but they have not popped tassels yet. I am assuming that means they got in the ground late. Corn soaks up the moisture in the ground, the only real worry is fungus and I did not see any signs of that, but I probably should talk to a few farmers and see if it has been an issue. You usually see yellow spots in the corn fields where the ground was either too dry, or lacked nutrients. I haven't seen any yellow in those corn fields around here.

    I just haven't been looking at soybeans, but I did notice that no one is planting cotton, or if they did it got a really late start. There was a lot of standing water in the fields in north Alabama this year.
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    I'm too stupid to invest, but I'm smart enough to let Merrill Lynch manage my retirement in mutual funds.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NativeTexan View Post
    I'm too stupid to invest, but I'm smart enough to let Merrill Lynch manage my retirement in mutual funds.
    I have my retirement money in managed funds, I feel it is safer there as I don't have the time to manage it and research it myself.

    About a year ago I did decided to do a little trading on my own just to see what it is about. I originally dropped $1,000 into my account and later another $250. I invested in smaller value stocks that have decent dividends. It has been about a year now and factoring in the Buy and future Sell fees I am just about breaking even. Stocks are always up and down a little but the dividends are paying off. While the $1,250 invested is not a lot of money it is well worth the learning experience so I am glad I did it.
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