I'm far less concerned with the rising

**number** of positive cases. More testing = more cases. That makes sense. And asymptomatic younger people who test positive aren't a major problem in and of themselves. Their potential to spread it is.

I'm more concerned with the rising

**percentage** of tested people who are positive. That is a strong indicator that it is spreading.

Even more concerning is the increasing number of

**hospitalizations** of people ill enough to need to be hospitalized. That is an indicator that a lot more people are getting seriously ill from it.

From the CDC:

May 30 - 87.9 COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 US citizens

Jun 20 - 98.4 COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 US citizens

A increase in hospitalizations of 10.5 points (11.9%) in just 3 WEEKS!

Infections and serious illnesses from the disease ARE spiking.

See the facts here

CDC COVID Hospitalizations graph
NOTE: you have to click the check box on the right to see the "OVERALL" rates quoted above. Then point your cursor at any week on the graph to see that week's rates. For people in the 50-64 age group (most of us on this forum) the rate increased from 133.6 per 100k to 148.6 a 15 point (11.2%) increase.

Here are a few calculations to show why I think that is scary.

There are over 130,000 supposed "COVID deaths" in the US. Some say that number is low because not all cases (like deaths at home) are being counted. Others say it is an over-inflated number - because if you die with it you get counted as dying from it. I think the 130,000 number is over-inflated. So let's assume it is extremely over-inflated by a huge margin - say 25%. We'll assume that 1 of every 4 reported deaths from COVID is a fake. That still leaves over 90,000 COVID deaths.

Here's another calculation to consider:

Right now the best estimates are that 24 million - about 7.5% of our population has been infected. Herd immunity will be achieved when we hit 90%-95% of the population infected or vaccinated. That means to do it by spreading the disease (since we have no vaccine) at least 12 times more people need to get infected to even hit that minimum 90% number (which is 300 million BTW) for herd immunity - in other words we need to infect another 275 million or so to get to 90%. Only 90,000 people have died, but then only 7.5% have had it so far.

So do the math. By the time we get to 90% of the people having had the infection based on what we've seen so far, then 12 times as many people will die of it. That's would be a total of 10.8 MILLION Americans dead to get us to the minimum of 90% for herd immunity. Maybe we'll be lucky and figure out how to save 80% or 90% of them so it will only be a million or two.