Reported New Cases Rising?
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    Reported New Cases Rising?

    At its highmark Pennsylvania got almost 2,000 new cases of the virus per day. That number had dropped down to just over 300 new cases by the middle of June, but now the numbers have been steadily rising since then to over 800 new cases reported for yesterday. I'm concerned that if this keeps up our wonderful Governor is going to have us on house arrest once again. Masks have been continuously been required in public throughout the state, but businesses in my area are just starting to be allowed to reopen and some semblance of normalcy is just beginning to be restored. I'm not looking forward to going back to square one.
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    I laugh when I hear people talking about the "second wave" when we aren't even halfway through the first. 520,000 dead world wide, 130,000 right here in the good old US, and we're only half a year into this thing. All the work we put in trying to get it under control undone the very moment things started to open back up and people decided they were going to go out and play without properly protecting themselves and those around them because of whatever whacked out reason they decided to make more important than themselves, their families, and society at large. I've watched people burn down buildings while wearing protective masks, and I've watched people shout shoulder to shoulder with others about Making America Great Again while not wearing one. I think we as a society have lost our collective minds, and there isn't an adult in the room to help put things back on track. The very moment one tries to stand up and speak common sense, half the country instantly finds a reason why they shouldn't be listened to. The greatest country on earth is currently on a banned travel list for half the planet, and I never thought I'd see the day. I've long held a personal theory to Fermi's Paradox, and never before have I had more evidence to support it.
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    Our esteemed Governor, Comrade Kelly, instituted a mandatory mask order beginning tomorrow morning at midnight oh one. Of course, her order didn't specify the punishment, so it seems blatantly unconstitutional in my opinion.

    I've asked my wife to dig up some bandannas. I'm thinking I need to get an old western belt and holster, with a .45 LC. That should go well with a bandanna. Didn't Dan Wesson make a .45 revolver?
    JimmyA and CaptainMorgan like this.

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    Simple math, do more tests, find more positives.

    The real indication is the % of deaths, which has dropped significantly.

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    Yeah, we're all gonna die. Fauci says so and he's NEVER wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RScottie View Post
    Simple math, do more tests, find more positives.

    The real indication is the % of deaths, which has dropped significantly.
    The useful indicator of the spread of infection is the number of hospitalizations.

    Deaths don't tell you anything about the possibility of you yourself becoming infected nor does it even tell you much about the possibility of you yourself dying if you become infected.

    At this point, testing doesn't provide useful information to the lay person, either. Testing will provide useful data to immunologists later on, but not to the person on the street.

    But if hospitalizations are skyrocketing in your neighborhood...that's information you can use for your own planning purposes.
    Last edited by Ralph_Kirk; 07-02-2020 at 04:00 PM.
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    I seriously question the number of deaths attributed to the COVID-19. I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers are made up.

    Nobody questions the numbers ... nobody. I'm very skeptical - that is all.
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    I'm far less concerned with the rising number of positive cases. More testing = more cases. That makes sense. And asymptomatic younger people who test positive aren't a major problem in and of themselves. Their potential to spread it is.
    I'm more concerned with the rising percentage of tested people who are positive. That is a strong indicator that it is spreading.
    Even more concerning is the increasing number of hospitalizations of people ill enough to need to be hospitalized. That is an indicator that a lot more people are getting seriously ill from it.

    From the CDC:
    May 30 - 87.9 COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 US citizens
    Jun 20 - 98.4 COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 US citizens
    A increase in hospitalizations of 10.5 points (11.9%) in just 3 WEEKS!
    Infections and serious illnesses from the disease ARE spiking.
    See the facts here CDC COVID Hospitalizations graph
    NOTE: you have to click the check box on the right to see the "OVERALL" rates quoted above. Then point your cursor at any week on the graph to see that week's rates. For people in the 50-64 age group (most of us on this forum) the rate increased from 133.6 per 100k to 148.6 a 15 point (11.2%) increase.

    People say we need to let the infection spread until we achieve herd immunity.
    Here are a few calculations to show why I think that idea is downright scary.

    There are over 130,000 supposed "COVID deaths" in the US. Some say that number is low because not all cases (like deaths at home) are being counted. Others say it is an over-inflated number - because if you die with it you get counted as dying from it. I think the 130,000 number is over-inflated. So let's assume it is extremely over-inflated by a huge margin - say 25%. We'll assume that 1 of every 4 reported deaths from COVID is a fake. That still leaves over 90,000 COVID deaths.

    Here's another calculation to consider:

    Right now the best estimates are that 24 million - about 7.5% of our population has been infected. Herd immunity will be achieved when we hit 90%-95% of the population infected or vaccinated. That means to do it by spreading the disease (since we have no vaccine) at least 12 times more people need to get infected to even hit that minimum 90% number (which is 300 million BTW) for herd immunity - in other words we need to infect another 275 million or so to get to 90%. Only 90,000 people have died, but then only 7.5% have had it so far.

    So do the math. By the time we get to 90% of the people having had the infection based on what we've seen so far, then that would mean 12 times as many people will die of it. That's would be a total of 10.8 MILLION Americans dead to get us to the minimum of 90% for herd immunity. Maybe we'll be lucky and figure out how to save 80% or 90% of them so it will only be a million or two.

    How does that sound?
    Last edited by BC605; 07-02-2020 at 04:26 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RScottie View Post
    Simple math, do more tests, find more positives.

    The real indication is the % of deaths, which has dropped significantly.
    Yes it has. After the majority of people staying home for two-three months, the rate of deaths fell. No surprise.
    Looked at the rate of hospitalizations lately? Going up pretty significantly.
    Death rates the last month or so have begun to rebound and start creeping up.
    With hospitalization rates spiking, the death rate will too, and soon. One usually follows the other.
    Check out the CDC link in my post above.
    Last edited by BC605; 07-02-2020 at 04:55 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BC605 View Post
    I'm far less concerned with the rising number of positive cases. More testing = more cases. That makes sense. And asymptomatic younger people who test positive aren't a major problem in and of themselves. Their potential to spread it is.
    I'm more concerned with the rising percentage of tested people who are positive. That is a strong indicator that it is spreading.
    Even more concerning is the increasing number of hospitalizations of people ill enough to need to be hospitalized. That is an indicator that a lot more people are getting seriously ill from it.

    From the CDC:
    May 30 - 87.9 COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 US citizens
    Jun 20 - 98.4 COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 US citizens
    A increase in hospitalizations of 10.5 points (11.9%) in just 3 WEEKS!
    Infections and serious illnesses from the disease ARE spiking.
    See the facts here CDC COVID Hospitalizations graph
    NOTE: you have to click the check box on the right to see the "OVERALL" rates quoted above. Then point your cursor at any week on the graph to see that week's rates. For people in the 50-64 age group (most of us on this forum) the rate increased from 133.6 per 100k to 148.6 a 15 point (11.2%) increase.

    Here are a few calculations to show why I think that is scary.
    There are over 130,000 supposed "COVID deaths" in the US. Some say that number is low because not all cases (like deaths at home) are being counted. Others say it is an over-inflated number - because if you die with it you get counted as dying from it. I think the 130,000 number is over-inflated. So let's assume it is extremely over-inflated by a huge margin - say 25%. We'll assume that 1 of every 4 reported deaths from COVID is a fake. That still leaves over 90,000 COVID deaths.

    Here's another calculation to consider:
    Right now the best estimates are that 24 million - about 7.5% of our population has been infected. Herd immunity will be achieved when we hit 90%-95% of the population infected or vaccinated. That means to do it by spreading the disease (since we have no vaccine) at least 12 times more people need to get infected to even hit that minimum 90% number (which is 300 million BTW) for herd immunity - in other words we need to infect another 275 million or so to get to 90%. Only 90,000 people have died, but then only 7.5% have had it so far.

    So do the math. By the time we get to 90% of the people having had the infection based on what we've seen so far, then 12 times as many people will die of it. That's would be a total of 10.8 MILLION Americans dead to get us to the minimum of 90% for herd immunity. Maybe we'll be lucky and figure out how to save 80% or 90% of them so it will only be a million or two.
    But there are a couple of things that set even those figures back.

    One is that they've discovered that people survive the disease by two different methods. One is a typical lymphoid recovery which results in antibodies that will protect against future infections (how long and how effectively? Nobody knows yet).

    But some people survive by a myeloid system recovery in which infected cells manage to fight off the disease themselves (the cytokine storm is part of that process). In that case, the patient recovers...but there are no discernible antibodies and no immunity from future infection. So we might count 300 million survivors...but maybe still only 200 million with immunity.

    The fact is, no reputable immunologist is talking about herd immunity without a vaccine.

    Another scary thing is that this disease presents itself in so many ways that there are few reliable "lessons learned" that doctors can share...or even use themselves on each of their own patients. Every doctor is nearly reduced to a monkey poking buttons on a microwave oven in terms of guessing whether what worked on his last patient would work on his next patient...or if it would kill them instead.
    "Failure requires maximum effort. If you didn't give it 100%, you didn't fail...you quit."
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