COVID-19 Projections/When Will It End? - Page 2
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Thread: COVID-19 Projections/When Will It End?

  1. #11
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    Italy's cases are starting to level out. 800 dead a day and 4000 new cases a day is going down now. So mid May for us in the U.S. Unless Italy is not counting the dead that come back alive. Add a few weeks to head shoot the walkers.
    loudviking and CaptainMorgan like this.

  2. #12
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    trump said today estimates are between 100-200k dead

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    Quote Originally Posted by pegasus View Post
    If you discovered a 100% effective treatment today the FDA would want to study it for a year or two before pronouncing it as a treatment.
    Our President starting fixing that problem years ago. He's gotten even more effective at battling FDA red tape in the last few weeks.

    As for when it will end and how many will die, there are way too many variables to even speculate. Look at the shaded areas in the "deaths per day" chart. Those are most likely two-sigma uncertainly boundaries. If my assumption is correct, that means they are 95% sure the real answer is within the shaded area. But of course, we're talking a chaotic system - like we almost always are when living beings are involved. So there's no way to verify the model, and no way to predict what curve ball is coming - whether in our favor, or not.
    "It is wonderful, in the event of a street fight, how few bullets seem to hit the men they are aimed at." Ranch Life and the Hunting Trail, Theodore Roosevelt, 1888

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  5. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasAviator View Post
    The problem is not the virus, the problem is the vast majority of peoples reaction to it. Panic, fear, economic shutdown.

    I'm not playing their game, I am not scared, I am not social distancing. The mortality rate is actually pretty low, and when you add those who have it and don't ever know (now they say it could be 25% of people never show symptoms), along with those who have only mild cases and those misdiagnosed the mortality rate will be even lower.

    I do take some steps to protect high risk people. I keep my distance from family members and strangers who are older or very young and respect those who want me to keep my distance from them. But I will not isolate myself. I will not quit hanging out with friends. I will not become a hermit. This madness will only end when either enough people get fed up or enough people move on to other concerns (like jobs for example), or someone in authority claims victory. Unfortunately to claim victory we will be stuck with this for a long time at the expense of the economy and liberty lost. A Pyrrhic victory in my eyes.
    I'm with you. I'm out working every day fortunately. Bi dont think it is as bad as the media and many others are saying.
    Time will tell, but during that time freedom is dissolving right before our eyes!

  6. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by GhostHorse View Post
    Our President starting fixing that problem years ago. He's gotten even more effective at battling FDA red tape in the last few weeks.

    As for when it will end and how many will die, there are way too many variables to even speculate. Look at the shaded areas in the "deaths per day" chart. Those are most likely two-sigma uncertainly boundaries. If my assumption is correct, that means they are 95% sure the real answer is within the shaded area. But of course, we're talking a chaotic system - like we almost always are when living beings are involved. So there's no way to verify the model, and no way to predict what curve ball is coming - whether in our favor, or not.
    Models.....the same "models " used to predict climate change/ global warming. Those models go against every bit of the scientific method that works so well.
    BigBlue, GhostHorse and Brian845 like this.

  7. #16
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    We still have people dying from the Spanish Flu of 1918.

    In other words, once it's in the wild, it doesn't really ever go completely away.

    We will be dealing with this in one way or another in the same way we deal with the various Flu viruses each year.

    MOLON LABE
    "Oppressors can tyrannize only when they achieve a standing army, an enslaved press, and a disarmed populace." ~James Madison

  8. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by hughewil View Post
    trump said today estimates are between 100-200k dead
    Italy was hitting about 850 dead a day.
    Let's say a 1000 dead a day for three months. 90,000.

  9. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by hughewil View Post
    trump said today estimates are between 100-200k dead
    He got that number from Dr. Birx, who said that was a best case scenario if everything went right with the current measures being taken. That is NOT taking into account any experimental treatments like the Chloroquine Z pak combo.

  10. #19
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    I hope it peaks and ends soon as my wife is finding out that my job isn't as hard as I've been saying it is!
    Life is full of give and take. Give thanks and take nothing for granted!

  11. #20
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    Given the reaction of many people in the public, and the delay in effectiveness, I also kind of expect the new infection rates to 'caterpillar' over the next few months.

    Social distancing takes a couple of weeks to really begin working, so controls in place should start paying off shortly.

    When the controls start paying off, a lot of people will give it the, 'Whew!' response, and go back to old habits.

    Old habits will cause new infections to begin to increase again, leading to more restrictions in social contacts.

    Which will begin to pay off after a couple of weeks, at which time people will go back to old habits.

    And so on until enough people have recovered to begin to support herd immunity, or until a vaccine is available -- maybe next year?
    Most stereotypes come from how you treated the last person who didn't know you.

    "The greater part of mankind . . . walk blindfolded in this glorious theater." John Calvin

    We will continue to make our republic the inspiration, the glory, and the envy of the rest of the world. As long as we are confident in our values, loyal to our citizens, and faithful to our God, there is no limit to what we can achieve. ​President Donald J. Trump, Feb 29, 2020.

 

 
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